Pokyčio teorija - Socialinis verslas

Theory of Change? What's that?

This section is designed to help you understand how your organisation is creating or preparing to create impact. We will put together a logical sequence of how your organisation's resources contribute to the realization of your long-term vision. We will discuss what social impact is, how to analyse it, and what organisations can learn from it?

Theory of Change is a widely used tool, particularly assisting the non-profit sector, public authorities or other organizations pursuing social change. Theory is often used when we plan new activities or want to understand the social change being created, or to deconstruct a social problem into essential parts of its operation. The main principle of change theory is to identify the long-term goal of solving a social problem and to analyze the sequence of events leading to this goal.

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What is Theory of Change all about?

It is a theory that has been around for half a century

Theory, the beginnings of which are found in the middle of the twentieth century, helps to explain how long-term impact goals are achieved. pokyčio grandinė . It is a logical chain of short-, medium- and long-term social impacts. Theory of Change requires linking these successive processes with arguments, understanding why short-term effects should lead to medium-term effects, and this to long-term effects.

Where do I start?

A completed chain of change is a sequence of arguments that explains how an organization creates social impact. The first step to this is to have a good understanding of what elements make up the chain of change.

Looking at the chain of change from the left, one can see the causal relationship. Every element on the left is a prerequisite for everything to happen on the right side right. If any element is removed from the chain, the remainder to the right of the removed element disappears.

The theory of change also separates the outcome sought by the organization from the output produced. By delving into each element individually, take the time to figure out how these two parts of the theory of change differ. These two concepts - social impact and output - will accompany you not only in the theory of change, but also in the later stages of impact planning. It is important to understand them properly.

The organisation creating the chain of change must first identify the social impact objectives and only then the activities planned by the organisation itself. When used correctly, important discrepancies can be observed - examine the logical sequence and arguments why the planned activities should create a positive impact.

Elements

The first three parts of Theory of Change

Resources

The chain of change on the left starts with resourcesrequired by impact activities. Logically, resources are a prerequisite for planned activities to take place.

Activities

The second part of the chain - impact-creating activities. These are programs, methods, products or services that aim to have a positive impact on the target group.

Output

The logical sequence continues with the third part - outputs. Outputs, which must be easily quantifiable (i.e., quantitative), describe what happened during the impact-generating activity. For example, a correct output would be the amount of plastic recycled in kilograms if the organization's activity is a plastic recycling workshop.

The downstream part of the chain of change is the social impact created by the outputs. These are vague, easily innumerable processes that can take a long time. Social impact is the intended change in society, people or the environment.

The impact is divided into three parts

Impact in the chain is divided into three parts - short, medium and long term. This reflects the chronological sequence, but is also a tool to understand how the impact develops when an organisation is no longer directly responsible for it.

Svarbu suprasti, kad organizacijos tiesiogiai atsakingos tik už trumpo laikotarpio poveikį – kurį iškart sukuria organizacijos veiklos. Vidutinio ir ypač ilgojo laikotarpio poveikiui įtaką daro kitos organizacijos, valstybės sprendimai, kartų kaita ir kiti organizacijų nekontroliuojami procesai. Tai – normalu.

Don't get confused!

Also, it is important to understand that short-term effects are not temporary! Short term does not indicate the duration of the effect - the word “short” is used because of the time after your activities required to create the effect. That is, short-term effects will occur faster than long-term ones.

Short-term outcome

Short-term effects occur at the earliest when your activities end. These are changes in the amount of information received, improvement in mood and other minor changes.

Short-term outcomes are responsible for occurring for medium-term outcomes. A change in the amount of information received (in the short term) results in a change in attitudes, habits, or a decrease in hatred or other behavioral traits in the medium term.

Medium-term outcomes

In the medium-term, attitudes, habits, hatred or other behavioral traits begin to change. Medium-term outcomes lead to long-term outcomes.

Long-term outcomes

Long-term outcomes - changes in society, communities, changes in social norms - solved social problems.

What does a good example of a chain look like?

This is a theory of change for an organization that is working to tackle youth unemployment. It is completed in accordance with all the rules listed in this topic. For a person familiar with the idea of theory of change, it becomes clear what the organization wants to achieve and how it will do it.

Resources

Social workers
Career consultants
Partners
Financing

Activities

Career counseling meetings
Trainings for job interviews

Output

Number of young people who took part in career counseling
Darbo pokalbių treniruotėse sudalyvavusių jaunuolių skaičius

Short-term outcomes

Increased knowledge about job interviews
Young people opt for more different career paths
Increased self-esteem in the process of job search

Medium-term outcomes

Decreased youth unemployment

Long-term outcomes

Declining social exclusion
The growing potential of the state

How to complete your Theory of change?

Completing the Theory of chain is different from other tools used in the planning process. Instead of asking ourselves “What activities will help me achieve my goal?”, in the Theory of change we must first name our ultimate goal. This allows us to deconstruct the process of social change - when creating a Theory of change, we have to ask ourselves "What does it take for this change to happen?".

1. The most important thing is long-term goals

Start by naming the long-term outcomes. What happens when you solve a social problem? What is the ideal societal situation that your organization seeks? Enter this goal in the last cell of the table. The tasks you have already completed on this platform can help you decide on the long-term impact your organization is seeking. Remember your problem definition - your long-term impact goal could be an “inverted” problem. Try to understand what situation would be the opposite of the problem.

2. What happens in the medium term?

Name what needs to happen in the medium term for long-term effects to occur. What needs to change in people’s thinking, behavior? To fill in this field, you will need some assumptions about how your target audience is experiencing the problem. Remember the analysis of the target group - its behavior, the wider context, the understanding of the problem - this can help to make the right assumptions. Analyze the problem map - how does it work? What are the consequences of the problem - maybe they will suggest the medium-term effects?

3. What determines the medium-term outcomes?

Name the short-term outcome - what does it take for the medium-term outcomes to happen? What do participants need to experience or learn? Remember the causes of the problem - perhaps they can help you understand what will change as your method begins to reduce them?

4. What does it take for short-term outcomes to occur?

Name the planned output - what will happen during your activities?

5. What activities will generate mentioned output?

Name the planned activities that create change. What are they? Distinguish them from all the other activities of the organization that do not directly create impact (e.g., accounting, administration, etc.) If your organization is active already, it is not necessary to list all of your activities in the Theory of change if you see that the chain loses its logical sequence as a result. If some of the activities are not included in the Theory of change, there is no need to throw them away - you may find that those that are included do not work; or you may realize that you didn’t name a particular outcome.

6. And what do I need in order to act?

Identify what resources are needed to complete these planned activities. They can be financial, human, intellectual and others.

7. Is everything clear?

Try explaining the chain to your colleague or neighbour - start from the left side. Use phrases such as “We need…. To make… ..” or “If…., Then….”. Pay attention to the questions that arise. Be critical of yourself and carefully analyse whether the chain fully explains how resources will create activities, activities - results, and results - the desired impact.

8. Did I miss anything?

Evaluate whether the chain of change you have created is logical - is there a clear cause / effect relationship in your impact? Don’t you notice big gaps in the logical sequence? Assess whether the Theory of Change is possible, i.e., whether your activities will create the identified impact. You may need to adjust the scope of your activities, or maybe you will need partners, other additional resources.

Lastly, you need to find out if your Theory of change is well designed. This is shown by the measurability of the impact. Like all other theories, the Theory of change also requires validation. The sequence of events identified in the Theory of change should be evidenced by the measurable impact. The goal of any organization should not only be to be able to tell how it creates an impact (to name a sequence of events), but also to have research-proven Theory of change. About that - in the next topic.